Weekly Analysis of the Australian Equity Market

By Daniel Goulding

The Long-term Outlook
BEAR MARKET

The Medium-term Outlook
UPTREND.

We have not yet witnessed the terminus of the current bear market. The economy will therefore continue to deteriorate over the next few years, despite claims to the contrary from many quarters.

While I am looking for at least one more short-term high, the greatest risk remains to the downside at this juncture. The recent rally is not corroborated by the market internals.

The gold sector which has been a useful leading indicator is already well advanced in its decline. And we are in the vicinity of the maximum time allowed for the current technical pattern.

Stock markets can decouple from such developments during bouts of excessive bullishness, but the chickens always come home to roost. The longer the transgressions, the uglier the outcome.

It is highly likely we retest the March 2009 low. This low may take place above or below 3120 points (the March low). It could prove an excellent opportunity to acquire outstanding franchises so keep an eye on this space.

Download the Sextant Report for 18-1-10 (File size 156k)

*Please note sections of this report are reserved for active clients only.

To become an active client please call Daniel on 07 4771 4577.

This report was prepared by Daniel Goulding through independent research facilities. It is not intended for use by any third party, without the approval of Daniel Goulding. While this report is based on information from sources which are considered reliable, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed reflect my judgment at this date and are subject to change.

Weekly Analysis of the Australian Equity Market

By Daniel Goulding

The Long-term Outlook
BEAR MARKET

The Medium-term Outlook
UPTREND

We have not yet witnessed the terminus of the current bear market. The economy will therefore continue to deteriorate over the next few years, despite claims to the contrary from many quarters.

A sell-off is imminent. In terms of time, we approaching the maximum time allowed for the completion of the current technical pattern. The market internals are downright ugly. The gold sector which has been leading the market is already well advanced in its decline. The property sector is hanging on by a thread. The low level of bearish sentiment is breaking all sorts of records. The US dollar looks primed to rally again, a headwind for asset markets. Stock markets can decouple from such developments during bouts of excessive bullishness, but the chickens always come home to roost. The longer the transgressions, the uglier the outcome.

It is highly likely we retest the March 2009 low. This low may take place above or below 3120 points (the March low). It could prove an excellent opportunity to acquire outstanding franchises so keep an eye on this space.

Download the Sextant Report for 13-1-10 (File size 646k)

*Please note sections of this report are reserved for active clients only.

To become an active client please call Daniel on 07 4771 4577.

This report was prepared by Daniel Goulding through independent research facilities. It is not intended for use by any third party, without the approval of Daniel Goulding. While this report is based on information from sources which are considered reliable, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed reflect my judgment at this date and are subject to change.

Weekly Analysis of the Australian Equity Market

By Daniel Goulding

This report was prepared by Daniel Goulding through independent research facilities. It is not intended for use by any third party, without the approval of Daniel Goulding. While this report is based on information from sources which are considered reliable, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed reflect my judgment at this date and are subject to change.

The Long-term Outlook
Bear Market.

The price action since March is corrective, indicating that a sustainable long-term advance has not commenced. Probability strongly favours a retest of the March low at a minimum although it is not a strict prerequisite.

The Medium-term Outlook
Uptrend.

While the market remains entrenched in an uptrend, medium-term bearish divergences sound a note of caution. Investors should be taking profits where appropriate. Traders should become less aggressive in employing a buy-the-dips mentality until these medium-term divergences are resolved or until a new downtrend asserts itself.

A comprehensive copy of this report which contains fully annotated charts and analysis is reserved exclusively for Wealth+, Grow your Wealth Clients and trading clients.

Weekly Analysis of the Australian Equity Market

By Daniel Goulding

This report was prepared by Daniel Goulding through independent research facilities. It is not intended for use by any third party, without the approval of Daniel Goulding. While this report is based on information from sources which are considered reliable, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed reflect my judgment at this date and are subject to change.

The Long-term Outlook
Bear Market.

The Medium-term Outlook
The market is uptrending.

The Short-term Outlook
Rig portfolio for dive.

A comprehensive copy of this report which contains fully annotated charts and analysis is reserved exclusively for Wealth+, Grow your Wealth Clients and trading clients.

Weekly Analysis of the Australian Equity Market

By Daniel Goulding

This report was prepared by Daniel Goulding through independent research facilities. It is not intended for use by any third party, without the approval of Daniel Goulding. While this report is based on information from sources which are considered reliable, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed reflect my judgment at this date and are subject to change.

The Long-term Outlook
Bear Market.

The Medium-term Outlook
The market is uptrending.

The Short-term Outlook
Rig portfolio for dive.

A comprehensive copy of this report which contains fully annotated charts and analysis is reserved exclusively for Wealth+, Grow your Wealth Clients and trading clients.

Weekly Analysis of the Australian Equity Market

By Daniel Goulding

This report was prepared by Daniel Goulding through independent research facilities. It is not intended for use by any third party, without the approval of Daniel Goulding. While this report is based on information from sources which are considered reliable, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed reflect my judgment at this date and are subject to change.

The Long-term Outlook
Bear Market.

The Medium-term Outlook
The market is uptrending.

The Short-term Outlook
Rig portfolio for dive.

A comprehensive copy of this report which contains fully annotated charts and analysis is reserved exclusively for Wealth+, Grow your Wealth Clients and trading clients.

Weekly Analysis of the Australian Equity Market

By Daniel Goulding

This report was prepared by Daniel Goulding through independent research facilities. It is not intended for use by any third party, without the approval of Daniel Goulding. While this report is based on information from sources which are considered reliable, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed reflect my judgment at this date and are subject to change.

The Long-term Outlook
Bear Market.
Expected terminus: 2693 or below. September to November 2012.

The Medium-term Outlook
Uptrend.
A downtrend will be confirmed if the market moves below 3709.

The Short-term Outlook
Rig portfolio for dive.

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